Why OBCs are key for BJP before 2024

India

oi-Deepika S

The Supreme Court order has not only provided relief for the Yogi Adityanath-led BJP government in Uttar Pradesh but is also likely to have a wider ramifications ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

New Delhi, Jan 05: In a significant ruling, the Supreme Court on Wednesday stayed the Allahabad High Court order directing the Uttar Pradesh government to hold urban local body polls without reservation for the OBCs.

The apex court directed that a panel appointed by the state government will have to decide the OBC quota-related issues for the local bodies poll by March 31, 2023. The top court permitted the state government to appoint administrators to run the affairs of the local bodies after the expiry of the tenure of the elected representatives.

The Supreme Court order has not only provided relief for the Yogi Adityanath-led BJP government in Uttar Pradesh but is also likely to have a wider ramifications ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

What is the OBC issue?

Yogi Adityanath-led UP government issued a provisional list of reserved seats for mayors of 17 municipal corporations, chairpersons of 200 municipal councils, and 545 nagar panchayats for the three-tier urban elections. It included OBC reservation as well.

According to the draft notification, four mayoral seats -Aligarh, Mathura-Vrindavan, Meerut, Prayagraj- were reserved for OBC candidates. Of these, the mayor’s posts in Aligarh and Mathura-Vrindavan were reserved for OBC women.

In addition, 54 chairpersons’ seats in the 200 municipal councils were reserved for OBCs, including 18 for OBC women. Among the chairpersons’ seats in 545 nagar panchayats, 147 seats were reserved for OBC candidates, including 49 for OBC women.

In December last year, the Allahabad HC had blocked the reservation for OBCs in the urban body polls, scrapping a draft notification for reservation.

While issuing the order, the high court observed that the state had not followed the triple-test formula and stated that the seats reserved for OBCs should be announced as a general category for these elections.

What is the triple test?

The ‘triple test’ formula requires setting up of a commission to hold a ‘rigorous empirical inquiry’ into the nature of ‘backwardness’ in the context of the local bodies, specifying the proportion of reservation based on the commission’s recommendations, and not exceeding the overall 50 per cent quota limit.

The HC order came at the onset of 2023, a politically significant year when all parties will set their narratives with the 2024 general election in mind. With 80 Lok Sabha seats, Uttar Pradesh, the most populated state in India is electorally crucial for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to retain.

Within two days, the Uttar Pradesh government moved the Supreme Court against Allahabad High Court order to hold urban local body polls without reservation for the OBCs. The Adityanath government also appointed a panel as per SC guidelines to bring in OBC reservation in urban local body polls.

Why OBCs are key for BJP before 2024

Keeping the OBCs intact is crucial for the BJP as they constitute over 50 per cent of the country’s population and play an important and decisive role in elections.

“OBCs are biggest vote bank in UP and with its support BJP came to power in UP in the 2017 and 2022 polls and won maximum Lok Sabha seats in the state in the 2014 and 2019 general elections. After this court order (the HC one), the Opposition has got an opportunity to do propaganda against the BJP by calling it anti-reservation. If they succeed it can cause a major damage to BJP nationally ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The party and the state government will certainly come out with some strategy to control the situation,” a BJP leader had told the Indian Express.

According to a Lokniti-CSDS survey, the party’s OBC vote share has went up from 33 per cent in the 1996 Lok Sabha elections to 44 per cent in 2019.

On the road to the crucial elections in 2024, the BJP has announced a series of initiatives to make the Scheduled Castes (SCs) — splintered by their loyalty to different parties — its loyal support base.

Prime Minister Modi personally steered a drive to signal the BJP’s commitment to Dalit icons, and paved way for Dalit leaders’ appointment on key posts, including the President of India, while the party started organising Dalit home visits and conducted several outreach programmes.

Similarly, to woo the OBC (Other Backward Classes) voters, the BJP inducted several OBC leaders in the Union Cabinet.

Though BJP has been able to mobilise the OBC votes through popular schemes, it is still not confident of retaining its popularity amongst them. There are apprehensions that BJP’s OBC voters may slip away, if regional parties, that enjoy the community support begin an aggressive mobilisation in the name of social justice.