It has been quite the regular season in the NFL and depending on how things shake out this weekend there could potentially be as many as three teams that qualify for the playoffs with a record below .500.
Many football bettors just so happen to be familiar with sub-.500 records, but the final week of the regular season is an opportunity to go out on a high note and carry some momentum into post-season wagering.
There’s a double-header on Saturday followed by a 14-game Sunday slate. With certain teams resting starters, several matchups having zero playoff implications and others involving teams whose seasons are on the line, plus a multitude of other variables, the betting lines and totals this week are the most volatile we’ve seen all season.
Editor’s Note: Gambling problems aren’t only about losing money. They occur on a continuum, and can affect a person’s whole life. To learn more about developing a healthy relationship to gambling, and to find resources for support, click here.
Here’s the full Week 18 board with betting lines, totals, picks, plus some season-long trends to close things out.
SPREADS & TOTALS
Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (+9.5) | Over/Under: 52.5
Tennessee Titans (+6.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5) | Over/Under: 39.5
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) | Over/Under: 40.5
New England Patriots (+7.0) vs. Buffalo Bills (-7.0) | Over/Under: 43.5
Minnesota Vikings (-7.5) vs. Chicago Bears (+7.5) | Over/Under: 43.5
Baltimore Ravens (+9.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-9.5) | Over/Under: 39.5
Houston Texans (+2.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) | Over/Under: 38.5
New York Jets (+3.0) vs. Miami Dolphins (-3.0) | Over/Under: 37.5
Carolina Panthers (+3.5) vs. New Orleans Saints (-3.5) | Over/Under: 41.5
New York Giants (+14.0) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-14.0) | Over/Under: 43.5
Cleveland Browns (+2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) | Over/Under: 40.5
Dallas Cowboys (-7.0) vs. Washington Commanders (+7.0) | Over/Under: 40.5
Los Angeles Chargers (+3.0) vs. Denver Broncos (-3.0) | Over/Under: 39.5
Los Angeles Rams (+6.0) vs. Seattle Seahawks (-6.0) | Over/Under: 41.5
Arizona Cardinals (+14.0) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-14.0) | Over/Under: 39.5
Detroit Lions (+4.5) vs. Green Bay Packers (-4.5) | Over/Under: 49.5
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In lieu of tidbits for each matchup, here are some NFL betting trends to keep in mind this week and entering the playoffs.
Home teams and road teams were split 50/50 against the spread (ATS). Home clubs currently have the slightest advantage with 124-123-8 ATS record.
Underdogs have covered at roughly a 55 per cent rate this season and home dogs have been consistent weekly bets to rely on, cashing in just shy of 57 per cent of games.
When it comes to totals, this season has been favourable to those who prefer betting the under. Unders have hit in 56 per cent of games throughout 2022-23, which includes nine that required more than four quarters.
The Bengals have the best ATS record at 12-3 followed by the Giants at 12-4 and Lions at 11-5.
Tampa Bay remains the worst team at covering with a 4-11-1 ATS record; Kansas City and Chicago are trailing at 5-10-1 ATS.
Minnesota is the top over team at 11-5, while the Eagles, Bears and Lions are each 10-6 on overs.
The Jets, Titans, Bucs and Broncos are all 11-5 on unders, only to be outdone by Baltimore, who are the lone 12-4 under team.
How many of these trends will we continue seeing in the regular-season finale?
MIKEY J’S CARD…
Favourites ATS (34-39-2): Jaguars -6.5, Packers -4.5, Steelers -2.5, 49ers -14.0
Underdogs ATS (32-28-3): Bucs +4.5, Patriots +7.0, Commanders +7.0, Ravens +9.5, Texans +2.5, Panthers +3.5, Giants +14.5,
Overs (13-28): LAR/SEA 41.5, BUF/NE 43.5
Unders (35-36): KC/LV 52.5, TEN/JAX 39.5, LAC/DEN 39.5, DET/GB 49.5
Moneyline dogs (19-24): Bucs, Texans, Panthers
Each week throughout the regular season I’ve shared some picks for the weekend slate. My overall record to date is an ugly 133-155-5, so you’re welcome if you’ve been fading – especially on those overs. Yikes! What can I say? I like rooting for points and I’m OK going down with that ship. Good luck in Week 18 to all!
(Listed odds via Covers as of Friday and subject to change; trends courtesy of Covers and TeamRankings)
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